How reliable for planning purposes do you think the Met Office Mountain Weather, MWIS or other UK forecasts are? In particular, their reliability 24-48 hours ahead when the weather is changeable. Any particular stories to relate?
YES after much desperate searching i though yesterday might not be too bad wet too start then heavy snow,no probs,then clearing and dropping in temp..worse winds i saw forcast were 25 perhaps gusts 35 mph ..now sadly my wind metor froze up but from experince i can happily ! say winds from Buck pike over too Dow crag and down to coll back of old man were at times in excess off 75+ mph with a constant id say 30-40 wind ......WEATHER IT IS WHAT IT IS WHEN YOUR ON THE HILLHow reliable for planning purposes do you think the Met Office Mountain Weather, MWIS or other UK forecasts are? In particular, their reliability 24-48 hours ahead when the weather is changeable. Any particular stories to relate?
Agreed. When you can't get reception to see the latest forecast and are relying on your own weather eye, that's when I've been caught out on a few occasions by the timing of storms. Most memorable (from my walk log) was 6/7 November, 2008 - Glyders, Ygarn and Elidir Fawr summit camp.Fairly good re. weather - not so good on timing
It all depends on the synoptics. This weekend was a good example of why even short range forecasting can be tricky. Large low pressure systems like we have at the moment will always come with uncertainty, as small movements in their track can have large effects.
Accuracy of forecasts at 1-2 days from the meto runs at well over 90% verification, as do many of the Numerical Weather Prediction models used to generate the forcasts. Not too shabby IMO.
I find that if the Meto and MWIS agree, the forecast is pretty much nailed. When they disagree, I use a blend of the 2. MWIS have better specialist knowledge of mountain conditions I believe.
Things are improving all the time. Newer forecasting computers off ever higher resolution and the promise of being able to model single km cells in the not too distant future, whereas now they use multi km cells.
metcheck is owned/run by a guy down this way.
Google him, and you may decide whether or not to use the site....